Wednesday, 10 March 2010
It's On.
18:02 | Posted by
Declan Lyons
The political calendar for the next few months was drawn today as it was announced, like many predicted, that the Budget would be on March 24th. This means that if Gordon is to go to the country on May 6th, he'll call the election on Monday 12th April. Surprisingly, this is quite a gutsy move. I didn't expect Brown (or Darling, he is the fall guy) to want to have to put up a budget before the general election.
Having said that, now they have done, you can guess it won't be a budget for the good of the country. It won't be a budget made to slash Britain's huge deficit or to get control of public spending in preparation for the next few years. We're going to see the full force of Labour's machine. As John Major said at the dinner I was at last week "from 1997 onwards, the Labour Party just existed to win elections". Gordon isn't stupid enough to put up a budget before the election full of bad news, but full of things that are right to get Britain back on the road to recovery. What might we see? Well, I wouldn't be surprised if the necessary spending cuts are dodged. Tax rises will be there - this is a Labour government, they always are - but they'll be exquisitely buried in the small print.
For the first time in a long while, the people are beginning to listen tot he Conservative Party. Since 1997, through each election, people didn't give us that platform simply because Labour's momentum dragged them through. Make no mistake about it, this budget is one of Brown's most important ones (only being beaten by the 1997/8 ones, which were important for him). Hopefully Osborne and his staff will have sifted through the small print and dragged out every shameful tax rise and cowardly act to reveal what this government intends to do. Hopefully it won't be long before Tory Bear makes another remix.
Having said that, now they have done, you can guess it won't be a budget for the good of the country. It won't be a budget made to slash Britain's huge deficit or to get control of public spending in preparation for the next few years. We're going to see the full force of Labour's machine. As John Major said at the dinner I was at last week "from 1997 onwards, the Labour Party just existed to win elections". Gordon isn't stupid enough to put up a budget before the election full of bad news, but full of things that are right to get Britain back on the road to recovery. What might we see? Well, I wouldn't be surprised if the necessary spending cuts are dodged. Tax rises will be there - this is a Labour government, they always are - but they'll be exquisitely buried in the small print.
For the first time in a long while, the people are beginning to listen tot he Conservative Party. Since 1997, through each election, people didn't give us that platform simply because Labour's momentum dragged them through. Make no mistake about it, this budget is one of Brown's most important ones (only being beaten by the 1997/8 ones, which were important for him). Hopefully Osborne and his staff will have sifted through the small print and dragged out every shameful tax rise and cowardly act to reveal what this government intends to do. Hopefully it won't be long before Tory Bear makes another remix.
Tuesday, 9 March 2010
UPDATED: "Scare Tactics"
18:49 | Posted by
Declan Lyons
Well, Nick Clegg, leader of the Liberal Democrats - who have it in their electioneering DNA to mislead voters - has accused Cameron of using "scare tactics", in the way of hyping up economic meltdown to help our electoral chances. Is this yet another example of his amateurish politics that seem to have hung around for a little too long? Mr. Clegg is very happy to sound dishevelled and upset about the state of the Britain's finances (as most people outside Labour are) when it suits his own political purposes, but then accuses others who share his concern as using scare tactics.
We may find ourselves in the next few weeks wondering where the floppy-eared Liberal Democrats went. Everybody involved in politics knows that their infamous use of bar charts are central to Lib Dem campaigns across the country, but will it become more negative? It certainly looks like it. It is ludicrous to accuse Cameron of stoking up the economic situation simply because whatever happens - and this lies with the main claim that Cameron and Osborne are trying to destabilise the pound - will be on the plate of any incoming government. If the country decide to choose the Conservatives to run the country, it will be their job to mend everything that has gone wrong in the last few years. As it stands, that job is going to be big enough and I don't accept the claim they're trying to make it worse.
UPDATE: I've been told by two separate people about Liberal Democrats' campaigns to save local hospitals, when there was no threat of them closing or their very own scare tactics had to be put into place. I've heard that the Lib Dem's launched a campaign to "Save Kingston Hospital" which brought Ed Davey and Susan Kramer being photo'd outside it with Clegg, even though the hospitals has said nothing about closures. Also, in Burnley, where the A&E was downgraded both the Tories and LD's rallied around to make it upgraded. Although I am told the Lib Dem campaign was built on fear. See Kitty Usher's (the local MP) statement here and Andrew Lansley's press release here.
We may find ourselves in the next few weeks wondering where the floppy-eared Liberal Democrats went. Everybody involved in politics knows that their infamous use of bar charts are central to Lib Dem campaigns across the country, but will it become more negative? It certainly looks like it. It is ludicrous to accuse Cameron of stoking up the economic situation simply because whatever happens - and this lies with the main claim that Cameron and Osborne are trying to destabilise the pound - will be on the plate of any incoming government. If the country decide to choose the Conservatives to run the country, it will be their job to mend everything that has gone wrong in the last few years. As it stands, that job is going to be big enough and I don't accept the claim they're trying to make it worse.
UPDATE: I've been told by two separate people about Liberal Democrats' campaigns to save local hospitals, when there was no threat of them closing or their very own scare tactics had to be put into place. I've heard that the Lib Dem's launched a campaign to "Save Kingston Hospital" which brought Ed Davey and Susan Kramer being photo'd outside it with Clegg, even though the hospitals has said nothing about closures. Also, in Burnley, where the A&E was downgraded both the Tories and LD's rallied around to make it upgraded. Although I am told the Lib Dem campaign was built on fear. See Kitty Usher's (the local MP) statement here and Andrew Lansley's press release here.
Monday, 8 March 2010
The DNA Debate
20:20 | Posted by
Declan Lyons
It is often pondered by many well-meaning folk: what is the matter with DNA databases? Indeed, the debate even came down to Gordon Brown suggesting the Conservative Party was the party of choice for rapists. Joe Murphy blogged about this at the time saying:
The database policy is one that will be a big vote winner from the liberal section of the country, too. This isn't a debate that should be framed around very extreme examples of DNA being used. I'm sure if you take most issues in government that the opposition disagree with, you can find extreme examples on both sides which prove either point. That technique is used all the time when debating the NHS. The debate about databases should be far more open to the public.
Considering that the idea means the most personal information of people possible is to be stored by a government famous for data blunders, surely the public should be consulted about this. There is literally nothing more important than peoples DNA. It gives you identity that means you can lead a day to day life. If someone dodgy gets their hands on it, for all purposes, you could cease to exist by being wiped off the records.
He cited the case of Jeremiah Sheridan who raped a wheelchair-bound cerebral palsy sufferer in her home 19 years ago and was last year convicted thanks to DNA samples.
“Next time you hear somebody question the value of retaining DNA profiles from those arrested but not convicted, remember Jeremiah Sheridan,” he said. “Most of all remember the innocent woman he attacked.”How very New Labour. Well, today it was discovered that only 1 in every 1,300 crimes committed is solved by using someone's DNA. No doubt this will put more fuel into the fire, but it should do. It is one of the finer, and more liberal, policies of Cameron's Conservatives to scrap the DNA database.
The database policy is one that will be a big vote winner from the liberal section of the country, too. This isn't a debate that should be framed around very extreme examples of DNA being used. I'm sure if you take most issues in government that the opposition disagree with, you can find extreme examples on both sides which prove either point. That technique is used all the time when debating the NHS. The debate about databases should be far more open to the public.
Considering that the idea means the most personal information of people possible is to be stored by a government famous for data blunders, surely the public should be consulted about this. There is literally nothing more important than peoples DNA. It gives you identity that means you can lead a day to day life. If someone dodgy gets their hands on it, for all purposes, you could cease to exist by being wiped off the records.
Sunday, 7 March 2010
The Funding War
13:41 | Posted by
Declan Lyons
This week has been marred by who donates what to political party's, and nobody is left out in this spat. It started with Lord Ashcroft ending years of speculation and coming out as a non-dom, but that was only the start of what would see a barrage of truths come out about who funds what party's. The issue is one that doesn't mean anything to most swing voters (something reflected in polling this weekend) but it is amusing to watch Labour work themselves up.
I've yet to hear a coherent response from either the Liberal Democrats or Labour on their funding. They have been very quick - almost too quick - to jump out of the blocks and Tory bash, but they've not had a look at their own books. Labour's look the dodgiest: the original attack on Lord Ashcroft was that he was "bankrolling" the Tories' effort in marginals, but then it emerged that Unions have been funding Labour's marginal effort in recent years, and the money they gave amounted to more than Ashcroft's. Funny that.
The response to this has been very muddled. To say the least. Watching Labourites try and work out some kind of response to this is brilliant. People who sign on to Unions like Unite are charged a political levy which is then passed on to Labour. I don't think I need to go into their very own set of non-doms which have been donating millions. The Liberal Democrats' position has made them look equally hypocritical as it was made apparent this week that they too received a shed load of cash from a non-dom living in France.
What can be the lesson from this week? Erm, I'm not sure really. Hours of news time has been spent on party funding when the earthquake rocked Chile and when Brown went against what the generals said about him cutting the budget in front of the Chilcot Inquiry. Hopefully we'll get back to the real issues soon, ie: who has the policies that make Britain flourish.
I've yet to hear a coherent response from either the Liberal Democrats or Labour on their funding. They have been very quick - almost too quick - to jump out of the blocks and Tory bash, but they've not had a look at their own books. Labour's look the dodgiest: the original attack on Lord Ashcroft was that he was "bankrolling" the Tories' effort in marginals, but then it emerged that Unions have been funding Labour's marginal effort in recent years, and the money they gave amounted to more than Ashcroft's. Funny that.
The response to this has been very muddled. To say the least. Watching Labourites try and work out some kind of response to this is brilliant. People who sign on to Unions like Unite are charged a political levy which is then passed on to Labour. I don't think I need to go into their very own set of non-doms which have been donating millions. The Liberal Democrats' position has made them look equally hypocritical as it was made apparent this week that they too received a shed load of cash from a non-dom living in France.
What can be the lesson from this week? Erm, I'm not sure really. Hours of news time has been spent on party funding when the earthquake rocked Chile and when Brown went against what the generals said about him cutting the budget in front of the Chilcot Inquiry. Hopefully we'll get back to the real issues soon, ie: who has the policies that make Britain flourish.
Saturday, 6 March 2010
Never Give Up
19:52 | Posted by
Declan Lyons
Last weekend was worrying. Awaking to that poll on Sunday morning which showed Labour being only 2 points behind the Conservatives - a result which, in true testament to our shameful electoral system, would mean Brown carrying on as PM. I shrugged the poll off as a rogue, and that has proven to be true over the week as poll after poll (including YouGov trackers) are showing the Tory lead to be anything between 5 and 9 now. However, it still concerned me. It made me wonder whether, even though it was a rogue, the effect it might have on people. It seems, as I wishfully predicted last Sunday morning, that the poll was a wake up call for many.
Tonight sees an ICM poll come out which puts the Conservatives back on 40%. That all important figure which we must stay on or get over to form a majority. I have said repeatedly throughout the campaign that polls don't really interest me, and I maintain that. Individual polls account for nothing more than a good/bad week for a party. But the polling this week has been very interesting indeed. For one, the steady rise throughout the week shows that - as not only I, but many predicted - the Ashcroft story has had absolutely no effect. People don't care about it. Going back to the earlier point in this post, if you decide to look at it from another way, it shows that people were scared when they heard there was a chance of Brown being PM and leading a minority government, and bucked their ideas up.
It was very easy to sit in the dark when week after week brought new polls showing 12 points leads, sometimes people worried when they dropped to 10. Nowadays, the polls do get my attention. Many predicted, and I was one of them, that this election was not in the bag and that it would take hard work up until every polling station closes to secure whatever lead the polls are showing. Living proof of sitting on your bottom and trusting polls can be found in the history books. Look at Kinnock who went into an election on a wave of 9 points, and even with the rigged electoral system, managed to come out as the loser. It is absolutely essential that we get up, go out and campaign whenever possible between now and the elections. If tomorrow's polling showed a 20 point Tory lead and that was mirrored throughout the week, it would not be in the bag. If party's go out of touch or get lazy, that will disappear. So don't give up. Get ready for a fight for government, a fight that - should we win - the ideals that David Cameron and the Shadow Cabinet have put forward for the last 4 years. If you're really prepared to work for it, it's there.
UPDATE: Depending on which way you look at it, more good/bad news tonight for the Tories. YouGov, the polling company that did the 2 point poll last week, have announced a new poll. Con 38% (nc), Lab 33% (+1), Lib Dem 17% (nc). Lead is 5% according to that one, which means the range in results remains the same (5-9). See more about it here.
UPDATE: Depending on which way you look at it, more good/bad news tonight for the Tories. YouGov, the polling company that did the 2 point poll last week, have announced a new poll. Con 38% (nc), Lab 33% (+1), Lib Dem 17% (nc). Lead is 5% according to that one, which means the range in results remains the same (5-9). See more about it here.
Friday, 5 March 2010
Brown at Chilcot
18:23 | Posted by
Declan Lyons
I don't think many expected more than a trimmed performance, Brown has had weeks to prepare for his turn in front of the Chilcot Inquiry although it was a performance that I don't doubt will be greeted with more positive press than Blair's received. One huge part to play was that Brown is still in power, so whatever he says could potentially be politically painful, and knowing what this government is like, he was never going to take such a risk. Whereas Blair is out of the picture so is certainly able to give a more frank overview.
It's very easy for Brown to sit in the Inquiry and repeat that whatever funding was necessary was given. You, me and most of the public know that to either be a lie or a severe manipulation of the truth. If the correct funding was given we wouldn't have the tragic (and downright absurd) situations that mean troops are left without essential parts of equipment. Now we have the generals vs the Prime Minister. Those army representatives involved in the initial preparations for Iraq and the subsequent invasion have made it very well known that they felt budgets were brutally slashed.
For relatives of service men killed in the Land Rovers that they had to drive around in (because the helicopter budget wasn't what it should have been) today will have, inevitably, created some very raw feelings. The main questions that people wanted asking, like "Why were so many Land Rovers needed if the budget was all it should have been?" were not put to the Prime Minister.
On balance, it would be hard to believe Brown over the military representatives like General Walker - the Chief of the Defence staff - simply because they have no political motivation in all of this. Brown's main fear will be that he will generate bad headlines, whereas the General's main fear is that the army aren't being served properly. Brown was actually very good at the Inquiry today, he glided through it. Maybe that is testament to the weak committee, or maybe his extensive preparation, but it will definitely be a happy night in Downing Street.
It's very easy for Brown to sit in the Inquiry and repeat that whatever funding was necessary was given. You, me and most of the public know that to either be a lie or a severe manipulation of the truth. If the correct funding was given we wouldn't have the tragic (and downright absurd) situations that mean troops are left without essential parts of equipment. Now we have the generals vs the Prime Minister. Those army representatives involved in the initial preparations for Iraq and the subsequent invasion have made it very well known that they felt budgets were brutally slashed.
For relatives of service men killed in the Land Rovers that they had to drive around in (because the helicopter budget wasn't what it should have been) today will have, inevitably, created some very raw feelings. The main questions that people wanted asking, like "Why were so many Land Rovers needed if the budget was all it should have been?" were not put to the Prime Minister.
On balance, it would be hard to believe Brown over the military representatives like General Walker - the Chief of the Defence staff - simply because they have no political motivation in all of this. Brown's main fear will be that he will generate bad headlines, whereas the General's main fear is that the army aren't being served properly. Brown was actually very good at the Inquiry today, he glided through it. Maybe that is testament to the weak committee, or maybe his extensive preparation, but it will definitely be a happy night in Downing Street.
Dinner with Major
15:55 | Posted by
Declan Lyons
Last night I had the honour of attending a dinner with Sir John Major. The event was one of the last opportunities for PPCs to fundraise before the election, and it was not a let down. We raised a lot of money for some key seats here in the North West, a region in which we'll have to take quite a few Labour seats to form a government. Sir John was a brilliant guest to have. Upon arrival, there were drinks in the lobby of the hotel before moving in for dinner. He gave an excellent speech which left everybody wondering one thing after it: why is Cameron not giving that speech every day between now and the election?
It was not just mindless attacks on Labour, it was alternatives and a passionate recount of his time in government. He also told the room how he thought Labour's class politics "beneath contempt", for the obvious reasons. Major was certainly a very good guest who made for a very memorable evening. Not only did speak to me and my friends for a long time, he was - and I promise I'm not joking - quite funny. So come the election, I hope the message is sent from Major to Cameron, and I hope he sends over the transcript of that speech. Because that speech would change the path of this election, and it would help us dramatically.
It was not just mindless attacks on Labour, it was alternatives and a passionate recount of his time in government. He also told the room how he thought Labour's class politics "beneath contempt", for the obvious reasons. Major was certainly a very good guest who made for a very memorable evening. Not only did speak to me and my friends for a long time, he was - and I promise I'm not joking - quite funny. So come the election, I hope the message is sent from Major to Cameron, and I hope he sends over the transcript of that speech. Because that speech would change the path of this election, and it would help us dramatically.
Wednesday, 3 March 2010
Election Debates
19:03 | Posted by
Declan Lyons
A bit late to this announcement as I've been in exams mode but... isn't it great? We're going to get a series of live election debates lasting 90 minutes that happen around the country. The North West, South West and Midlands will each be hosting debates on different topics. The North West, the debate in which I am hoping to attend, is on domestic issues. The NHS, education, immigration and the like. It should be interesting. The South West will be on international affairs, and the Midlands will be on the economy. I imagine all three will be unmissable.
The debate chairmen will be Alistair Stewart, Adam Boulton and David Dimbleby. Three very credible people to have leading such a historic event. The hope is that because each debate will last 90 minutes, and there is 3 of them, this means that the 270 minutes the leaders will have to debate in total will destroy any possibility that spin will be able to gloss over each one. The public should be really excited about this. The chance is there to be given a real insight into the mindset of each party leader just before what might turn out to be the most personality driven general election in modern history. We have a PM who has serious questions to answer over his handling of the economy, an opposition leader who the people are still unsure about and Clegg will be hoping that he can at least get himself recognised.
I'm certainly looking forward to them. This is a good example of how democracy is moving closer to the people. It would be a sham to shrug these off and say that the Prime Minister can be asked questions weekly at PMQs. Most people aren't interested in that as it's political theatre, but in these debates the 3 Prime Ministerial hopefuls are going to have to answer questions in front of 200 voting members of the public. I can't wait.
The debate chairmen will be Alistair Stewart, Adam Boulton and David Dimbleby. Three very credible people to have leading such a historic event. The hope is that because each debate will last 90 minutes, and there is 3 of them, this means that the 270 minutes the leaders will have to debate in total will destroy any possibility that spin will be able to gloss over each one. The public should be really excited about this. The chance is there to be given a real insight into the mindset of each party leader just before what might turn out to be the most personality driven general election in modern history. We have a PM who has serious questions to answer over his handling of the economy, an opposition leader who the people are still unsure about and Clegg will be hoping that he can at least get himself recognised.
I'm certainly looking forward to them. This is a good example of how democracy is moving closer to the people. It would be a sham to shrug these off and say that the Prime Minister can be asked questions weekly at PMQs. Most people aren't interested in that as it's political theatre, but in these debates the 3 Prime Ministerial hopefuls are going to have to answer questions in front of 200 voting members of the public. I can't wait.
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About Declan
Declan is a young Tory who has been involved in the Conservative Party since late 2006. He enjoys sport and in his spare time plays football, cricket and golf. He supports Liverpool. He also loves music, and his favourite band is Radiohead. Declan believes strongly in the downsizing of Government, and pulling out of the European Union, this goes hand-in-hand with a strong belief in localism.
This blog was set up as a place where he could voice opinions on matters of the day. The views expressed on this blog are only Declan's, and do not reflect the thoughts/beliefs of the Conservative Party in any way, shape, or form.
This blog was set up as a place where he could voice opinions on matters of the day. The views expressed on this blog are only Declan's, and do not reflect the thoughts/beliefs of the Conservative Party in any way, shape, or form.
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